Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 38% YES on Polymarket, up from 34% a week ago, as major banks push further into Bitcoin ETF products. Market reaction Morgan Stanley launch�...
At least eight vessels have crossed the US naval blockade line in recent days, heading toward Iranian ports or preparing to load Iranian cargo. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to nor�...
A senior Israeli official says the US plans to take a more active role in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. The market for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES. Both the�...
Israel confirmed a self-defense carve-out under the Lebanon ceasefire. The Ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market is�...
Trump’s three-word jab at Eric Swalwell connects to serious allegations around the former congressman. The Eric Swalwell market on Polymarket sits at 100% YES for his departure by May 31, with 45 da...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to use all economic tools against those backing Iran’s “terrorist activities,” following discussions with Britain’s finance minister. The ma...
CENTCOM’s announcement that the US naval blockade focuses on Iranian ports rather than the Strait of Hormuz has shifted market expectations. The odds for Trump lifting the Strait blockade by May 31 ...
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for a second consecutive day on optimism that Middle East tensions might ease. The S&P 500 opening on April 16 market sits at 99.9% YES followi�...
Sergey Shoigu warned Finland and the Baltic states against allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russia. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market sits at 5.9% YES, down from 6%�...
Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed dozens just hours before a ceasefire was set to begin. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago. The viol�...