Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesn’t need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 6% YES, down from 20% yesterday. Market reaction The retweet sen...
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50-3.75%, with the market for a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 10% YES. CME FedWatch shows a 90%�...
Treasury yields remain steady amid waning optimism for a US-Iran ceasefire extension. The likelihood of extending the ceasefire by April 21 is at 0% YES, and the market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000�...
Trump’s endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100% YES with 7 days remaining, even as Israel continues military strikes in southern Lebanon. Market reaction The Israel x Hezbol...
Day 56 of the extended ceasefire in the 2026 Iran War has produced no progress on diplomatic fronts. The probability of Donald Trump attending a meeting with Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2% YES,�...
The US-Iran ceasefire has expired and tensions are rising, but Bitcoin’s odds of dipping to $60,000 in April sit at just 1.4% on Polymarket. Bitcoin’s odds of hitting $60,000 in April are at 1....
China’s foreign ministry advised its citizens to leave Iran or relocate to safer areas, citing security risks. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ...
Trump is weighing punitive actions against NATO allies who refused U.S. support in the Iran conflict. The probability of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES. The potential pen�...
Trump’s move to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III has shifted prediction markets. The likelihood of marijuana being rescheduled by December 31 is now at 42.8% , down from 62% yesterday. ...
Persian Gulf nations are producing 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels after a Strait of Hormuz closure triggered by a US-Israel attack, and crude oil prediction markets are adjusting t�...