Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition has won the parliamentary election with 37-45% of the vote. The market for Radev becoming Bulgaria’s next Prime Minister is at 96.6% YES, up from 76%...
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament referenced “vibe-trading” in digital crude oil markets, citing a Bloomberg Terminal command for Dated Brent oil prices. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits ...
The US Navy has seized an Iranian ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 is at 20% YES, down as tensions escalate. �...
Vessels came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, pushing odds that 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 down to 26.5% YES from 51% yesterday. Market reaction The market d�...
National Australia Bank has raised its credit provisioning, pointing to market volatility from the Middle East conflict. This has led to a slight increase in the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in�...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized US threats against Iranian ports, claiming they show a lack of commitment to diplomacy. The statement has pushed down odds on the US blockade of the�...
Iran rejected a second round of US peace talks while Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 are now at 21.0% YES, down fro�...
The assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists has heightened fears of uranium and nuclear expertise reaching the black market, with proliferation risks tied to regime instability. The likelihood of�...
A viral IRGC Navy transmission on Channel 16 declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pending orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 3�...
Iran’s Mehr news reports US forces fired on an Iranian merchant ship, prompting IRGC naval intervention. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 31 sits at 0% YES. The incident reinforces t...